ATN Project FAQs
Benefits & Costs
In one small city in northern Colorado we are finding a $97M ATN project should uplift service area property values by approximately $768M for a benefit/cost ratio of 7.9 on this factor alone. Other additional factors tend to increase the benefit/cost ratio from there.
Benefits include mobility improvements, congestion reduction, energy conservation and emissions reduction as well as improved economic development.
- Mobility improvements – especially for those too young, old, infirm, or poor to have direct access to a car
- Public service support – e.g. improved ability to reach medical services
- Equity benefits – increases economic and social opportunities for people who are economically, physically and socially disadvantaged
- Efficiency benefits – savings and other benefits that result when transit substitutes for automobile travel
- Vehicle cost savings – automobile to transit shifts provide vehicle cost savings to consumers
- Avoided chauffeuring – the additional automobile travel specifically to carry a passenger such as a schoolchild
- Congestion reduction
- Parking cost savings
- Safety, health and security impacts
- Roadway costs
- Energy conservation and emission reductions
- Noise impacts
- Water pollution
- Travel time impacts
- Land use impacts
- Economic development impacts including property value impacts
Capital costs vary substantially based on local conditions. Roughly speaking, all costs including guideway, stations, vehicles, etc. range from about $8M to $20M per route mile ($5M to $12M per km).
Operating costs are about $0.50 – $1.00 per vehicle mile ($0.30 – $0.60 per vehicle km).
Smaller vehicles require smaller infrastructure that costs less. Small vehicles are more easily kept mostly full and can be pulled out of service more readily. Combined with reduced stopping and starting, this keeps O&M costs low.
Because the vehicles are so much smaller, ATN column loading is approximately ten percent of that for automated people movers and light rail. Guideway beams and columns are thus much smaller and cost far less. Since vehicles are much smaller, more are needed, and mass production economies are more achievable. Thus, capital costs are much lower. Even assuming the costs were the same on a per-kilometre basis, ATN is much more cost-effective on a per-passenger mile basis, which is what matters. This is because many studies around the world show that the much higher level of service offered (short walking distances and waiting times coupled with higher average speeds enabled by nonstop travel) results in a ridership approximately four times higher.
Vehicle capital and operating costs are proportional to vehicle weights. Vehicle weight is in turn proportional to passenger capacity. Large vehicles have high costs balanced by high passenger-carrying capacity. However, the cost-effectiveness of large vehicle systems suffers because, during off-peak hours, many large vehicles must continue to circulate even though they are mostly empty. With small vehicle systems, most vehicles can be parked during off-peak hours.
A comparison of ATN with light rail and bus rapid transit can be found here:
http://www.advancedtransit.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Muller-ATN-LRT-BRT-Comparison.pdf
Owner Considerations
- Preliminary investigation
- Detailed planning, environmental and preliminary design
- Very short demonstration system (or key people visit existing systems)
- Pilot project
- Project expansion
The relatively low cost of a preliminary investigation is typically funded locally, whereas all other aspects of the project should be fundable through federal, state, and other grants, combined with private financing.
This depends on local laws and preferences. Typically an ATN System will be developed as a Public Private Partnership (PPP) of which the community owns a significant portion.
Typically, the project team will operate the system. If desired, operations can be transferred to the community after a suitable training period.
People typically decide whether to travel by car, bus, train, taxi, or bicycle based on two primary factors: Cost and Time
Since we can show riding the ATN will cost less and take less time, we can be quite certain that more people will prefer ATN over more traditional modes of transit.
Many studies around the world indicate that the percent using ATN will be significantly higher than that using conventional transit. These studies generally ignore additional factors such as ATN being much safer, with zero injury accidents in 200 million passenger miles (300 million passenger kilometers) and more comfortable (e.g. everyone gets a seat). A primary purpose of a feasibility study is to ensure the specific project will attract sufficient riders willing to pay the planned fares.
The most prolific mode of transportation worldwide is a “small vehicle” called the car or automobile. Cars carry billions of people every day. However, using a small vehicle for public transportation is impractical when it requires a driver. Driverless small vehicles are the most practical and economical form of public transportation provided they are separated from other traffic and pedestrians, and trips can be generated on-demand, 24/7. The paradigm of public transport changes when you remove the driver.
Maximum speed is typically 25 – 45 mph. Maximum capacity is 2,000 to 19,000 passengers per hour per direction.
Absolutely! Most other modes, especially trains and bus rapid transit, function best in corridors. ATN functions best as a network (or mesh) of guideways spread throughout the service area. Thus, ATN can serve the areas between corridors and help bring passengers to the systems operating in the corridors. Studies show that adding ATN to the transit mix generally attracts additional riders to the ATN system as well as to the legacy transit systems – all transit modes tend to benefit.
Initially maybe yes. Over time, as the ATN network grows, people will find they can go most places via ATN with no, or few, stops and with no transfers. The legacy transit will continue to have transfers (even within the same mode) and attract some trips while the ATN system attracts a different set of trips. Use of cars, and the corresponding traffic congestion, will be significantly diminished.
Detailed financial models have proven that ATN systems can operate successfully (and potentially at a profit) while charging fares that are comparable to bus fare. ATN allows significant cost reductions due to being driverless, electric, and up to 4x more efficient than even electric cars.
While no drivers are required, ATN systems generate many jobs in construction, maintenance and operation. In addition, some or most aspects of the system can potentially be locally manufactured and assembled. Passengers switching from cars would impact fewer existing jobs than those switching from buses. ATN will attract many more riders than conventional transit and thus generate more (and better) transit jobs despite requiring no drivers.
Largely because of entrenched industries and confirmation bias. Confirmation bias means we believe what we are comfortable believing. As an example, it took doctors 140 years to codify handwashing because they did not want to believe they were killing their patients with “dirty hands.” Similarly transport agencies who run buses and trains and acquire transportation systems, tend to believe big buses and trains are the answer to public transport, not small vehicles.
ATN has been working in public service since 1975. ATN is a subset of automated people movers (APM) which have been in wider public service for even longer. ATN (and APM) operates on dedicated guideways separated from (often above) other traffic and pedestrians. It has no need to deal with the highly variable street/road/pedestrian environment which seriously challenges driverless car technologies.
Modern ATN designs are not like elevated train structures creating darkness underneath. ATN guideways can be narrow and elegant and fit within existing road rights of way. We strongly promote adding architectural beauty and value to the streetscape.
First, it should be noted that over 30% of the US population does not have direct access to a car, and in some countries as many as 95% of people do not have access to cars. In a well-designed ATN system, typical walk time to a station should be less than about 5 minutes. A modern ATN will deliver faster, lower cost, more reliable travel in peak hours than cars can achieve.
All modern ATN systems have in-station and on-board video monitoring. Artificial Intelligence (AI) based video interpretation can automatically alert a controller to problematic behavior, and in-vehicle speakers/microphones facilitate direct communication between controllers and passengers. In the worst cases, vehicles can be re-directed to a station where law enforcement is already waiting.
Safety Considerations
ATN vehicles operate on their own dedicated guideways and are separated from other traffic and pedestrians. There are no crossings, only merges and diverges. Merge controllers ensure that vehicles are dynamically maneuvered to make space for each other at merges. Altogether, ATN has completed over 200 million injury-free passenger miles (300 million passenger km).
ATN pods are designed to never to collide with each other, so structural design for crash worthiness is greatly simplified.
ATN operates on dedicated guideways separated from other traffic and pedestrians. Busy urban settings have no impact on it, provided it can handle the passenger demand. All modern ATN systems achieve over 99.5% reliability – five times more reliable than Transit Level Of Service A.
It is well proven that ATN safety far exceeds that of all other surface transportation systems except automated people movers of which it is a subset.
Morgantown demonstrated 5,000 passengers per hour per direction (pphpd) with 22-passenger vehicles back in 1975. Vectus demonstrated 7,000 pphpd capabilities with six-passenger vehicles around 2008. Modutram trains up to four pods together to achieve 19,000 pphpd. Modern ATN systems will soon achieve these capacities or more with single pods now the American Society of Civil Engineers Automated People Mover Standards (2021 edition) have been changed.
A push of a button puts passengers in touch with a controller who can see what is going on in the vehicle and direct that vehicle to a hospital or police station, or even have emergency personnel meet it at the next stop. Artificial intelligence (AI) video interpretation can automatically alert a controller to any problematic situations occurring in a vehicle.
Operations
One-way guideway infrastructure is smaller and less obtrusive. The station infrastructure is also simpler and smaller. A network of one-way loops can support a larger service area with more small stations. Generally, the service area will be about 50% larger than that of 2-way guideways for the same capital cost.
Two-way guideways work best for connecting a few stations along a corridor. In most other circumstances one-way loops work best. One-way loops do result in some out-of-the-way travel, but this usually only amounts to one or two minutes per trip. Complex layouts comprised of interconnecting two-way guideways require complex interchanges or speed- and capacity-limiting roundabouts.
Elevated ATN stations will be accessed by stairs leading to a platform that is level with the vehicle floor (which facilitates the rolling of items into the vehicle). Most or all elevated stations will be equipped with lifts (elevators) and/or escalators to facilitate accessibility for disabled passengers, and those with baby strollers, luggage, etc. In some circumstances it is possible to bring ATN stations down to grade to allow direct access from the sidewalk level. It is also possible to attach ATN stations to an upper floor of a building, permitting direct access to/from the interior of the building.
This depends on the availability of surface space. At-grade stations take up more space but are easier to access and do not require elevators, which are sometimes difficult to maintain. Each station location should be individually evaluated to determine if it should be elevated or at-grade. Another good option is to attach a station to an upper floor of a building if practical.
Guideways will almost always be elevated. However, in circumstances where no pedestrians or vehicles need to cross the guideway for an extended length, it is possible to locate the guideway close to the ground. This may have some cost benefit, but the guideway would need to be fenced to avoid pods accidentally colliding with pedestrians or animals.
All ATN passenger pods presently in public service are wheelchair accessible. Pods will also be designed to accommodate baby strollers, luggage, and ideally bicycles as well.
In a moving dynamic block control system, pods must stay within a virtual moving block of space that no other pod is allowed to enter. The merge controller reserves merge space for each block in advance, so merge conflicts or backups never happen. A fixed block system works similarly but, because the blocks are fixed, the pods must remain further apart from each other.
A network with only two stations offers only two origin/destination pairs (routes) to choose from. This would provide very limited usefulness! A network with four stations offers twelve routes. In general, the number of route possibilities (utility) increases exponentially as the number of stations increases. This is what is referred to as the network effect.
While ATN systems are laid out in a wide network of loops, trains and buses typically run along linear corridors, with mandatory stops at every station along the corridor. Therefore, when you add additional stations you add more stops and potential transfers. Adding stations thus makes buses and trains slower and less convenient which detracts from utility.
Scalability
First, we should look at an existing example: the ATN system in Morgantown, West Virginia (which opened in 1975) has demonstrated capacity up to 5,000 passengers per hour per direction using antiquated technology. The system moves 3,000 passengers per hour through a single station during college sporting events.
ATN systems have been designed with distributed (as opposed to centralized) control systems. It is easy enough to demonstrate a control hand-off from one zone to another. Typically, central control has no need to simultaneously control thousands of vehicles. Vehicle control may be handled on a zonal basis with zone controllers handing off vehicles to one another. Most of what central control does is manage the assignment of routes to pods. Expanding the system involves adding zones. It never involves transfers because all stations are accessible to all vehicles.
Operational Risk
Decades of evidence shows this almost never happens. Transit level of service A is 97.5% availability. Morgantown PRT (with 48 years of operational history) achieves 98.5% availability. Modern PRT systems are achieving 99.5% – FIVE TIMES more reliable. In the unlikely event a pod breaks down (despite the extensive self-monitoring and preventive maintenance) it can be pushed or pulled into a nearby station by another vehicle. In the very worst case, passengers can be assisted out of a disabled vehicle by means of a “cherry picker” and the vehicle can be removed by a crane.
ATN systems must always have multiple redundant power sources, and key control computers must have backup redundancy. Most ATN systems use battery-powered vehicles that have pre-planned “emergency routes” that enable them to complete their journeys without outside power and with little data input. In the event of a complete power failure, no new passenger trips would be started and empty vehicles in stations would be sent to storage and/or moved out onto the station exit guideway in order to ensure there is room for other vehicles destined to that station.
As merges begin to reach full capacity, the control system may choose alternate routes to utilize less busy guideways. During very busy peak periods, departures may be slightly delayed (a few seconds to a few minutes) in order to fit all traffic smoothly through the merges.
Construction and Deployment
Typically, most construction elements can be manufactured offsite, shipped to the site, and then assembled into final position. In many situations the construction can take place in or behind the sidewalk with some disruption of pedestrian traffic and little or no disruption to road traffic. In some situations, such as when the guideway is being placed in a narrow median, one lane of traffic may need to be closed. Unlike road construction, the construction process is very quick, and any disruption will probably last days, not months. In sensitive areas, construction could be limited to nighttime only.
No. As soon as one loop with more than one station is completed, it can be opened to traffic. As more loops are finished, they can be added to the network. This staged approach is the preferred way of opening the system to the public. It allows the public and the operators to build confidence in the system starting small and expanding over several years.
Yes. However, it must be understood that a pilot system with few station pairs will have limited usefulness, and therefore will likely generate little traffic or fare revenue. For this reason, a pilot system is not expected to be financially viable on its own without a plan for future expansion. Even so, it is generally understood that a pilot system is a necessary step in most cases.
ATN requires use of right-of-way just like a powerline. The owner/regulator of the right-of-way (typically for a road) must give their permission for ATN to share it. Aviation authorities must approve guideways located near airports or otherwise forming potential obstructions to aircraft flight. Historically, securing air rights has not been a significant obstacle to ATN system development.
ATN alignments are narrower and much more flexible than those for elevated light rail or automated people movers. Nonetheless not all obstacles can be avoided, and some will need to be relocated or removed. Streetlights can be replaced with lights supported by the guideway. Some powerlines could be carried by (or concealed inside) the guideway. Often, systems can fit well under trees with some trimming.
Guideways are supported on columns of about 2.5 ft (75 cm) in diameter placed about 65 ft (20 m) apart. If stations are elevated, they too will have a small surface footprint for columns, stairs and elevators. The entire footprint will be less than one percent of the footprint of a bus rapid transit system or light rail, and in most cases should fit within existing road reserves (rights of way).
